^{“Public opinion is the best judge of who’s right and who’s wrong” - Chinese Proverb}On April 29, 2004, Dr. Paul Lee shared his insights on polling and its impact on politics during the years. His extensive research shed light on the history of polling specifically focusing on presidential elections.

In 1890, the “Literary Digest” was the first publication to begin summarizing public opinion. The magazine accurately predicted President Hoover’s victory. The polling was completed with samples taken from phone books and registered voting records. The first time the polling proved to be incorrect was when the sample became too large. The Digest inaccurately picked Kansas Republican Alf Landon to beat Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Readership decreased as a result.
Landon button: Alf Landon for President

At this same time, the Gallup Poll began to gain steam. In 1935, Gallup sampled 50,000 individuals – again a very large sample. However, this time, their polls accurately picked FDR to win and he did. This organization became the “American oracle.”

In 1948, a polling debacle of great magnitude occurred. At the time, Harry S Truman was scoring low in all public opinion polls. Gallup picked New York Governor Thomas Dewey to beat Truman, which was not the case. Because of this incident, the entire effort of polling was discredited. The problem this time appeared to be that the polling stopped too early and didn’t use random sampling.

Lee pointed out the science of polls and the errors that sometimes happen, even in National politics, from not taking enough evidence into consideration or being shortsighted in conducting a poll. Ironically, Lee noted that first the first time in memory of the presidential polls, we have known who’ll be vying for our votes in November, this far in advance. He expects the polling to continue right up to election eve.

While his presentation was geared to an event he started following as a hobby, the importance of sufficient and sophisticated gathering of public opinion is important to PR professionals in many ways. Whether it is the introduction of a product, the action of a corporation or no action at the wrong time, public opinion may not be the real judge of who is right and who is wrong but it be a pretty powerful influence – good, bad or even ugly.

Notes compiled by Kathy Siddens, Director; contributions by Terry Barber, Administrator